"非典"给我国社会的发展和人民身体的健康带来了不可估量的损失,如何进行有效的防治,一直是我国理论专家和实践工作者普遍关心的问题.该文通过对北京市"非典"病毒的传播机制的分析,运用系统动力学的理论和方法建立"非典"传播的系统模型,通过参数隔离措施的变动,模拟分析了北京市"非典"疫情的发展趋势以及隔离措施对于整个"非典"疫情控制的影响.研究发现,隔离措施对整个"非典"疫情的控制起着关键性的作用:隔离强度越大,采取隔离措施的时间越早,累计患病人数就越少,疫情就能越早受到控制.该研究结果可为以后科学防治"非典"及其它流行性传染病提供理论依据与指导.
SARS has brought an inestimable loss in the development of our society and people＇s health, and how to prevent and cure it is a problem being concerned about by the theorists and the workers in practice in China. Based on the analysis of spreading characteristics of SARS epidemic in Beijing, the paper uses the theories and methods of system dynamics to set up a system model of the spreading of SARS epidemic. By changing the parameter - - isolation measure, it simulates the development trend of the SARS epidemic in Beijing and the impact of the Isolation Measure on the Control of SARS Epidemic. Through the study, we find that the smaller the isolation strength is and the earlier the isolation measure is taken, the less the total amount of the patients is and the earlier SARS epidemic is controlled. The result provides a theoretical base and guidance to the prevention and cure of SARS and other epidemic infections.
作者王行兵 胡燕 吴满琳
WANG Xing-bing, HU Yan ,WU Man-lin （Dept. of Management and Science, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China）
机构地区上海理工大学管理学院
出处《计算机仿真》 CSCD 2005年第11期 299-302,共4页
Computer Simulation
关键词“非典” 系统动力学 隔离措施 模型
SARS System dynamics Isolation measure Model
分类号TP391.9 [自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术][自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]
作者简介王行兵（1978-）,男（汉族）,安徽明光人,上海理工大学硕士研究生,主要研究方向：工商管理; 胡燕（1979-）,女（汉族）,江西新余人,上海理工大学硕士研究生,主要研究方向：工商管理; 吴满琳（1956-）,女（汉族）,上海人,副教授,上海理工大学工商管理研究所副所长,主要研究方向：工商经营管理.
